Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
